The result in the Barnsley Central by-election has shaken up politics and may prove to be a warning of coming events. The scale of the collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote; the fact that UKIP beat the Tories, coming second; and that the BNP beat the Liberal Democrats, coming fourth behind the Tories, indicates possible future trends. If the Liberal Democrat/Tory coalition suffers from the same mid-term slump usually experienced by governments then the right of centre fringe parties may achieve a breakthrough hitherto unknown in English politics. This effect may be more pronounced in the event of economic failure or other major political setbacks.
Of the 3 right-of-centre fringe parties standing in Barnsley Central, UKIP did best, coming second with 12.2% of the vote; the BNP came fourth with 6%; and the English Democrats came seventh with a respectable 2.2%. Of importance is the fact that both UKIP and the BNP stood in Barnsley Central in the 2010 general election, when the BNP achieved 8.9% and UKIP 4.7%. Barnsley was noted as being the BNP’s stronghold in Yorkshire and is where their support was highest. The English Democrats have never stood in Barnsley Central before and always faced an uphill task to establish themselves in competition with UKIP and the BNP in those circumstances. Nevertheless, the English Democrats’ vote was the second best they have ever achieved in a Westminster by-election [Haltemprice and Howden remains the best result when a vote of 7.2% and third place was achieved], and is better than has been obtained by UKIP in earlier Westminster by-elections [they achieved 0.8% in Ealing Southall or 1.9% in Sedgefield, for example]. Presently, UKIP is achieving better Westminster by-election results than the BNP.
Ideologically, there are noticeable differences between UKIP, the BNP and the English Democrats. UKIP is primarily an anti-EU, Thatcherite party – although it has adopted a more anti-Islam, anti-immigration stance in the last few years. Its stance on immigration remains equivocal and UKIP is concerned more about immigration from the EU than elsewhere. The BNP is perceived as an anti-immigration party, but its history and ideology is drawn from fascism. Its leadership are fascists, have a long history with fascism and many have spent much of their past denying the Holocaust, which seriously discredits the BNP and acts as a brake on their advance.
The English Democrats are firmly opposed to both mass immigration, multiculturalism and political correctness, but have positioned themselves as England’s equivalent of the SNP or Plaid Cymru. The English Democrats are therefore the only genuinely English nationalist party of the 3 contenders for the position of the fourth party in England. It remains to be seen whether the fourth party will be Thatcherite, fascist, or English nationalist.
