UKIP
It is always easy to be knowledgeable with the benefit of hindsight. Foresight is much more difficult.
The outcome of the general election is unclear, but a hung parliament appears to be the most likely result. The general election of May 2015 has been different in that much greater attention has been paid to the minor parties. This has allowed UKIP to appear in leader's debates, along with the Greens, and both Welsh and Scottish nationalists. This extra publicity afforded UKIP the opportunity to shine and have the coverage it so badly wanted.
The UKIP strategy in the run up to the general election was seemingly faultless. They did well in the EU elections last year and also in the local elections. They retained their high poll ratings. They facilitated the defection of 2 Tory MPs who resigned and fought and won by-elections to endorse their moves. This helped UKIP spook the Tories and created momentum. That momentum has now been lost, although the UKIP poll ratings are higher than for previous general elections.
Meanwhile, the SNP are on a roll. They look set to sweep Scotland and virtually wipe out the main parties as a significant force – if now wipe them out altogether. The SNP are currently polling more than 50% and that vote continues to increase.
The paradox is that UKIP who won the EU elections are failing to hold their own, while the SNP who lost the independence referendum are on the up. There are several reasons for this:
- The UKIP campaign has been, on their own admission, lacklustre. Nigel Farage has admitted that he has not been at his best and has confessed to back pain.
- UKIP has been unlucky in that the crisis of the Eurozone is presently quiet.
- UKIP has a long standing tendency to collapse when attacked. UKIP members who are accused of something are simply sacked from their post or candidacy, or are ejected from the party. This is an admission that the attacks are justified.
- UKIP are not English nationalists and consequently are unable to properly respond to some of the more ludicrous claims of the Welsh and Scottish nationalists that should be and shot down [mostly quite easily]. UKIP is blind to the flaws in the arguments. UKIP are playing catch up and are engaged in 'me too' as regards to the need for an English parliament.
- Not being an English nationalist party means that UKIP's appeal to the English vote is weaker than that of the SNP to the Scottish vote.
- UKIP lack moral certainty – in stark contrast to the SNP, who are wrong in fact on most things and have even jumped back from their reliance on oil for the independence argument before the oil prices halved. The SNP believe themselves to be right and anyone who does not share their view is wrong. By comparison UKIP are defensive and not attacking; are unable to choke off the variety of politically correct journalists who focus solely on race; and UKIP's immigration policy, immigration being the main reason people are voting for them, has been watered down and changes by the hour.
- UKIP has failed to develop a counter ideology. There is a failure to properly develop policies that can capture public imagination and can be defended. Prior to the launch of their manifesto, UKIP's headline catching issue was to abolish a 5% VAT rate on tampons. Their list of 100 reasons to vote UKIP has in the top 10, for example, 'stopping our endless foreign wars' while bottom of the list at 100 is 'rebalancing Britain's economy'. It is scarcely any wonder that UKIP have been unable to push the Tory slogan about their long term economic plan down their throats – as it deserved to be and as it needed to be. It is untrue that the deficit can only be eliminated by raising taxes or by cutting spending. The lack of an ideology might have had its advantages in the past, but it is a liability now.
- UKIP have no big idea. They urge people to take the major step of leaving the EU and cannot set out major benefits of that. Instead, they spend the money saved here and there. There is no attempt to focus and capture public imagination. UKIP prefer to play it safe. They needed to be bold and to think big.
- UKIP does not even seem to be targeting properly. Apparently, Hartlepool is now a target. The opinion poll ratings even in the target seats show a serious decline in UKIP support. There is either complacency or stupidity. An offer to help in a target seat, for example, is not necessarily accepted. Presumably, they are doing nothing or else they think victory is already in the bag.
- Instead of the cheeky chappie persona we now have glum Nigel – presumably to create a sense of gravitas.
- Voters have been urged by UKIP to vote Tory in those constituencies where UKIP believes it cannot win. This is fatal. You either fight to win or you will certainly lose very badly.
On a positive note, it must be acknowledged that Nigel Farage has shown some personal courage in arguing his case, including his 'shock and awesome' strategy, in front of a hostile media, and audience, especially when he is in a minority of one.
The spectacle of the UKIP Light Brigade trotting towards the wrong set of cannons is neither magnificent nor is it campaigning.
UKIP is the insurgent party. Where is the moral certainty, the big idea and the energy? Where is the optimism and the positive vision? Where is the razzmatazz? They are blowing it.
posted by erc @ 11:09 am
