BREXIT POSTPONED

In her long-awaited speech, Theresa May, the British Prime Minister, finally gave more detail of what the Government's policy is regarding leaving the EU. The speech has been met with great approval from the media and those who wish to leave the EU – including UKIP. 

Matthew Elliott, the chief executive of the Vote Leave, tweeted: 'Superb speech from PM –  everything we campaigned for @vote_leave. Inspiring vision for #GlobalBritain. Loved "Take Back Control" reference.' Nigel Farage, the former UKIP leader, tweeted: 'I can hardly believe that the PM is now using the phrases and words that I've been mocked for using for years. Real progress.' Suzanne Evans, a former UKIP leadership candidate and someone not in the Faragist wing of UKIP, said: 'I was chuckling at some of it, to be honest, it seemed as if she was channelling UKIP. There were various phrases there that I’ve used myself again and again, and I think her 12 priorities were all extremely sound, good priorities for a proper “clean” or what some people called “hard” Brexit – I overwhelmingly welcome the speech.' Labour have described May's proposals as 'Soft Brexit'.

The English Rights Campaign is unimpressed. In fact, a casual analysis of the May speech reveals it to be vacuous pap, and May's political correctness steadily guides her approach – as does her obsession with free trade. In practice there is a balance to be struck between free trade and a more protectionist approach. The issue is to strike the right balance. Britain's traditional policy of unilateral free trade is not a sensible policy and was largely responsible for Britain's long-term economic decline.

Throughout her speech, May ladled on her belief in globalism. She started in the third sentance: 'They voted to leave the European Union and embrace the world,' in reference to the referendum vote; and that 'It was the moment we chose to build a truly Global Britain', for example. May explained the Leave victory in the referendum as due 'not simply because our history and culture is profoundly internationalist, important though that is,' but also because 'Many in Britain have always felt that the United Kingdom’s place in the European Union came at the expense of our global ties, and of a bolder embrace of free trade with the wider world,' and that the vote was 'a vote to restore, as we see it, our parliamentary democracy, national self-determination, and to become even more global and internationalist in action and in spirit.' This rewriting of history is telling. People did not vote Leave because they wanted more globalization. They were motivated by a rejection of it and were concerned about more down-to-earth issues.

Correctly, May pointed out that Britain should take: 'the opportunity of this great moment of national change to step back and ask ourselves what kind of country we want to be'. Leaving the EU gives Britain the opportunity to tackle its problems. But May ignored this and prefered:

'I want this United Kingdom to emerge from this period of change stronger, fairer, more united and more outward-looking than ever before. I want us to be a secure, prosperous, tolerant country - a magnet for international talent and a home to the pioneers and innovators who will shape the world ahead. I want us to be a truly Global Britain – the best friend and neighbour to our European partners, but a country that reaches beyond the borders of Europe too. A country that goes out into the world to build relationships with old friends and new allies alike. I want Britain to be what we have the potential, talent and ambition to be. A great, global trading nation that is respected around the world and strong, confident and united at home.'

This might all sound nice, with lots of talk of being global, but it is meaningless. What of the size of the balance of trade deficit (a problem totally ignored in the speech despite the EU's responsiblity for a great part of it, it not even being mentioned once), or of how to end mass immigration, or of the need to free Britain from other damaging entities such as the human rights courts and legislation? Leaving the EU gives Britain the opportunity to negotiate a trade deal that will end the trade deficit with the EU, but May did not even see that as an aim! She did mention that the Government would get its spending deficit down and spend more on infrastructure as it does so. In fact the deficit is likely to stay high and the Government is actually increasing it above the level planned by the previous chancellor, George Osborne.

May claimed that Britain’s historical global aspirations are 'why we are one of the most racially diverse countries in Europe, one of the most multicultural members of the European Union'. In fact Britain is 'racially diverse' etc. due to the unwillingness of successive British governments to stop the ever-increasing scale of immigration, despite the firm opposition to mass immigration from ordinary people. Multiculturalism has been imposed on the British public and is not something they have ever voted for.

May set out twelve objectives:

1.    Certainty

2.    Control of our own laws

3.    Strengthen the Union

4.    Maintain the Common Travel Area with Ireland

5.    Control Immigration

6.    Rights for EU natonals in Britain, and British nationals in the EU

7.    Protect Workers' Rights

8.    Free Trade with European Markets

9.    New Trade Arrangements with Other Countries

10.  The Best Place for Science and Innovation

11.  Cooperation in the fight against crime and terrorism

12.  A Smooth, Orderly Brexit

May rightly committed to 'convert the “acquis” – the body of existing EU law – into British law', and that the outcome of the deal negotiated would be put to a vote in parliament.

May said that in future laws would be made in 'Westminster, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast', that there was a 'a Joint Ministerial Committee on EU Negotiations, so ministers from each of the UK’s devolved administrations can contribute to the process of planning for our departure from the European Union', that there had already been a paper from the Scottish Government', and that the Government expected 'a paper from the Welsh Government shortly'; also that the Government looked 'forward to working with the administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland to deliver a Brexit that works for the whole of the United Kingdom'. She promised that the Government would work 'very carefully to ensure that – as powers are repatriated from Brussels back to Britain – the right powers are returned to Westminster, and the right powers are passed to the devolved administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland'.

But what of the English? Why is there no one representing English interests? Why are the English, who are funding Britain, denied an equal say in Britain’s governance? Why is there not a devolved English parliament? May saw nothing wrong with anti-Engish discrimination and did not even mention the issue, simply taking it for granted as a normality.

The speech did nothing to reassure voters that mass immigration would end. May boldly asserted that 'We will continue to attract the brightest and the best to work or study in Britain – indeed openness to international talent must remain one of this country’s most distinctive assets', and that 'we will always want immigration'. Instead there was a sop: 'In the last decade or so, we have seen record levels of net migration in Britain, and that sheer volume has put pressure on public services, like schools, stretched our infrastructure, especially housing, and put a downward pressure on wages for working class people. As Home Secretary for six years, I know that you cannot control immigration overall when there is free movement to Britain from Europe.' As Home Secretary, May did virtually nothing to curtail either legal or illegal immigration. Immigration is at record levels with roughly 650,000 pouring in each year. Currently, the Government has even been using the Royal Navy to ferry illegal immigrants across the Mediterreanean and has recently been searching Europe for and bringing into Britain mature, if not middle-aged men, who claim to be child minors. May made no commitment that anything would change.

May did rule out continuing membership of the EU Single Market. Although this is seen as radical, in fact it is simply what people voted for last summer (both sides of the referendum campaign admitted that a vote to leave would mean leaving the Single Market). Instead, May committed to 'pursue a bold and ambitious Free Trade Agreement with the European Union' that would give Britain tariff-free access to the Single Market, 'on a fully reciprocal basis'. If that commitment holds, then unilateral free trade will not be pursued. But there is no commitment to dealing with the unfair advantage that the north European countries have, in particular Germany, due to, for them, the undervalued euro. There is no commitment to bring trade with the EU back into balance. This is a serious defect in the Government strategy. Furthermore, although May said that Britain would no longer 'contribute huge sums to the EU budget' and that 'the days of Britain making vast contributions to the European Union every year will end'. They key term is 'will end'. This is something that might happen some date in the future – if the May Government does not cave in. It should be noted that May did commit to 'make an appropriate contribution' for specific programmes with which Britain might wish to stay involved.

May enthused about free trade, saying that a 'Global Britain' must enter into 'trade agreements' with countries across the world. She cited China, Brazil, the Gulf States, and India, as well as Britain’s daughter nations of Australia, New Zealand and Canada and the USA (our American cousins), which is now keen to strike a trade deal as soon as possible. May bemoaned that since joining the EU trade as a percentage of GDP for Britain has 'broadly stagnated' and of the need for Britain to 'rediscover its role as a great, global trading nation'. To enter into free trade deals with Third World countries would be ruinous, given their much lower wages, living standards and scant levels of regulation, and any such deals would need to be approached cautiously. A free trade deal with the communist, protectionist China would not be worth the paper it is written on. There is already a wopping balance of trade deficit between Britain and China, and Britain needs a clear strategy to bring its trade back into balance. There is no evidence that May even grasps this. The statistic about trade as a percentage of GDP is irrelevant. What matters is the growth rate of the British economy, which will be determined by the competitiveness of British manufacturing and its ability to successfully thrive, primarily, in the home market. Britain was the superpower of the 19^th century because it was a great manufacturing nation. It was the competitiveness of British industry that was the source of British economic power and the engine for the increase in living standards.

In order to avoid a 'cliff-edge' when leaving the EU (the term 'freedom' would be more accurate), May proposed that:

'We believe a phased process of implementation, in which both Britain and the EU institutions and member states prepare for the new arrangements that will exist between us will be in our mutual self-interest ... This might be about our immigration controls, customs systems or the way in which we cooperate on criminal justice matters. Or it might be about the future legal and regulatory framework for financial services. For each issue, the time we need to phase-in the new arrangements may differ. Some might be introduced very quickly, some might take longer. And the interim arrangements we rely upon are likely to be a matter of negotiation. But the purpose is clear: we will seek to avoid a disruptive cliff-edge, and we will do everything we can to phase in the new arrangements we require as Britain and the EU move towards our new partnership.'

So, the opening proposal is that Britain, having spent from June 2016 to March 2017 doing nothing other than consider what it might want to do, then spends two years in negotiations, which may or may not even result in an agreement, before putting anything agreed to not only the British parliament but also all the other EU parliaments, including the European parliament, who can veto the deal; then, after all that, it is proposed that there is an interim period before the vote of June 2016 is finally honoured. This interim period could be many years. In the meantime there are not only elections in Britain, but also across the EU and its 27 Member States; and, importantly, the 'vast contributions to the European Union every year' will continue, the flood of immigrants will continue to pour in, EU laws will continue to be enforced upon us, Britain's fishing grounds will continue to be plundered by foreign fishing vessels, and the balance of trade deficit will continue to balloon. And this is May's ideal! From this ideal position, as is the nature in negotiations, there will be compromises, fudges and sell outs. May's opening stance is a losing position – especially so given her desperation to reach a free trade deal with the EU.

Revealingly, May said:

'Trade is not a zero sum game: more of it makes us all more prosperous. Free trade between Britain and the European Union means more trade, and more trade means more jobs and more wealth creation. The erection of new barriers to trade, meanwhile, means the reverse: less trade, fewer jobs, lower growth.'

This is a simplistic presentation of 19^th century free trade theories. It is not automatic that free trade increases more growth, jobs or wealth creation. In practice, there is a balance to be struck between free trade and a degree of protectionism. The question is does Britain have the right balance? The scale of, and reasons for, the continuing balance of trade deficits with both the EU and China proves that we do not. Britain cannot continue selling off assets and borrowing to fund its trade deficit, and needs a strategy to pay for imported goods by selling exported goods. Selling more British goods in the British home market is the key part of this long overdue correction.

Interestingly, May pointed out that a failure to reach a deal with the EU 'would risk exports from the EU to Britain worth around £290 billion every year'. A 20% tariff on those EU goods would raise £58billion a year – broadly sufficient to elminate the government spending deficit. Then there is China. In reality the introduction of tariffs would result in fewer imports and exports and more sales in the home market.

The policy should be one of implementing a strategy to bring our trade with the EU into balance (and the same policy should be applied towards China). Taking the deficit with the EU to be in the region of £80billion, then, by definition, British production will increase by £80billion to bridge that deficit. Either we will export £80billion more, or import £80billion less (because we are now buying British goods rather than foreign ones) or, more likely, a combination of both. Those who would now benefit from these extra sales would, in turn, having more to spend, buy more from others, who, in turn, would do likewise. Thus output will increase further (Keynes made much of this multiplier effect).

There is a precedent. In February 1932, after crashing out of the Gold Standard and in the face of tariffs being used by all other developed countries (with Britain clinging to its policy of unilateral free trade), Britain introduced the Import Duties Act which introduced a 10% tariff on all imported goods apart from those specifically exempted (such as raw materials). By April 1932, the tariff rate was doubled. The positive effect of this new policy was dramatic. Britain's output had fallen by 5.6% in 1931. Between 1931 and 1937, industrial production increased by 70%.  Britain's per capita incomes increased by 0.2% in 1932, by 2.5% in 1933, and by 6.3% in 1934.

A policy to bring the trade with the EU and China back into balance would not only eliminate the trade deficit, but also eliminate the government spending deficit, and would also boost growth and  increase living standards. Leaving the EU would mean ending the payments to the EU and free extra monies to put into the overstretched NHS, which is what was promised during the referendum campaign. Yet the May Government chooses not to do any of this.

Britain remains a member of the EU until it repeals the 1972 European Communities Act. It is this Act which makes the EU supreme and only repealing it will restore the sovereignty of the British Parliament. Triggering Article 50 does not get Britain out of the EU, and is a delying mechanism that puts the EU in charge, with Britain seeking permission to leave from the European Parliament and the 27 Member States. Currently Malta is taking a hard line (think about that). In any event, the first paragraph of Article 50 states: 'Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements'. Britain should repeal the 1972 Act at once and leave.

May concluded her speech by saying 'when future generations look back at this time, they will judge us not only by the decision that we made, but by what we made of that decision'. Indeed they will. Britain does not need a policy of Brexit Postponed, but a policy of Turbo Brexit (as has already been advanced by the English Rights Campaign and set out below):

The English Rights Campaign would regard the following points as central for maximizing the benefits of Brexit and the opportunities it allows. This might be termed Turbo Brexit:

1. A complete end to the annual payments to the EU. Any post-Brexit deal should exclude any further payments to the EU. The so-called Norway Model should be rejected. From the money saved, £100million per week should be allocated to the NHS. The sooner the EU payments cease, the sooner the extra funding for the NHS is available.

2. There should be a full restoration of British sovereignty. Neither the EU, nor any other international organization, should have any power over Britain's internal affairs. Britain's laws should be determined by Britain's parliament. Britain should withdraw from the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights and repeal the so-called Human Rights Act.

3. Britain should regain full control over its territorial waters and those should be set at the international standard, with the fishing limit extended to 200 miles. Britain should have full control over its fishing policy and fish conservation.

4. There should be an end of free movement of people and Britain should take whatever measures are necessary to bring mass immigration to a complete end. The EU should have no say over who lives in Britain. Illegal immigrants and immigrant political extremists should be deported. This must necessitate withdrawing from the UN Convention on Refugees; help should be given to genuine refugees in their own or neighbouring countries. British citizenship should not be granted until someone has lived in Britain for at least 30 years and is someone of good standing.

5. Overseas Aid should be reduced to a minimum. The aim should be to reduce it by at least £10billion. Those who wish to give donations to overseas bodies and charities are of course free to do so with their own money.

6. Britain's trade policy should be one of balanced trade. Britain has a massive balance of trade deficit with the EU and also with China. Britain needs to adopt trade policies that will eliminate these trade deficits. If necessary, tariffs should be used. In addition, there should be measures to prevent further key British firms being taken over by foreign entities. Other countries protect their key industries and so should Britain.

7. There should be a determined de-Marxification programme to remove the ideology of political correctness from society. Those promoting political correctness should have their access to public monies cut. Political correctness should cease to be the basis of morality and patriotism should be quietly engendered.

8. Priority should be given to reducing the government spending deficit; ending the scandal of councils seizing pensioners’ homes if they are taken into care; and reintroducing a fully transferable married couples tax allowance. To raise money, in addition to the extra tax income from increased growth due to trade being brought back into balance, and the savings on overseas aid and payments to the EU, there should be the introduction of a Solidarity Tax on those who have thus far avoided the extra costs of the political correctness and immigration that they so loudly demand. All organizations bringing in immigrants should be charged the full cost of a house; there is no reason why taxpayers should fund a housebuilding programme to cater for the immigrants brought in to save wages and training costs for business and other organizations; let those organizations which do so well out of immigration pay to house those immigrants.

9. The House of Lords needs to be replaced to better reflect the views of ordinary people and to cull the collection of cronies with which the chamber has been stuffed since the expulsion of most of the hereditary peers; it has become and expensive Ponzi class gravy train and is dysfunctional. There should also be the introduction of an English parliament to give the English an equal footing in Britain. The powers devolved to the various national parliaments should be equalized with a proper federal structure.

10. There should be selective measures taken to tackle crony capitalism, self-aggrandising lawyers and dishonest bankers (including their agents). Monopoly abuse should be met with fines. Lawyers should no longer be allowed to manipulate the law to their own financial advantage (e.g. orchestrating allegations from foreigners against British troops, and exploiting divorce proceedings). It should be assumed that the wealth created during a marriage is split evenly in order to simplify, make fairer and minimize lawyers' fees. Small and medium sized businesses should have the law amended to alter the balance of power in their favour regarding banks. Bank criminality should be aggressively prosecuted.