TORY IDENTITY CRISIS
Below is a copy of an article in The Guardian written by Vince Cable, which highlights the looming political identity crisis in the Tory Party.
At the moment they seem to be fooling themselves, but how much longer can this last?
From the Guardian:
The biggest Tory fear is that Cameron really is a liberal
The ghastly thought is starting to dawn on the Conservative troops that perhaps their general means what he says
Vincent Cable
Thursday February 9, 2006
Capitalist societies are characterised by speculative bubbles: dotcom shares; property; bonds; and now Cameroons. Speculative bubbles are driven by the unshakeable belief of punters that markets always go up and never come down. Usually, bubbles burst. Investors in Blunketts, Milburns, Portillos, Hagues and Howards have little to show for the fashionable certainty that they would be the next prime ministers. But sometimes - albeit rarely - a new stock emerges with strong and durable fundamentals. Thatcher was one, Tony Blair another. Is Cameron one of these?
Cameron has emerged very quickly to a friendly critical reception. He has undoubted style. He is making a brazen bid for the political ground occupied by New Labour and my own party. I suspect I am not the only Liberal Democrat to have received chummy emails addressed to "my fellow liberal", or invitations to join his shadow cabinet (albeit via the somewhat impersonal medium of the Daily Mail). These fishing expeditions are unlikely to net any more than the odd, obscure ex-candidate, but they demonstrate chutzpah.
The important question is whether there is substance as well as style. The effortless progress Cameron has enjoyed within his party is striking. This is in marked contrast to the years of struggle during which Kinnock, Smith, Blair and Brown transformed the Labour party; the intense intellectual and personal battles Thatcher fought with her party's "wets"; and the fierce debates that my party enjoys on positioning and policy.
So far, Cameron hasn't fought anyone over anything. His fans put this down to brilliant generalship. A more likely explanation is that his troops haven't yet progressed from the parade ground to the battlefield. Moreover there are two radically different views of what his generalship is designed to achieve.
The first is the conventional wisdom shared by most of his supporters and opponents, that all the stuff about liberalism is a clever affectation. On this view, he is essentially concerned with rebadging an old and familiar product: the politics of Michael Howard, his mentor, and Iain Duncan Smith, presented with a charming smile and a dexterous turn of phrase. He is making the nasty seem nice. If that is all that is involved, we can relax. In due course, the feint to the centre will be followed by a familiar lunge to the right: with talk of swamping by immigrants, European conspiracies, and the evils of taxation. The Mail and Telegraph will crack the whip. Open-neck shirts and recreational drugs will go the way of William Hague's baseball cap, and we'll be back on familiar terrain.
But the ghastly thought is beginning to dawn on the Conservative party - as well as on New Labour and ourselves - that perhaps he means what he says. It is worth recalling that his inspiration, Gladstone, was once described by the historian Thomas Macaulay as the "rising hope of stern and unbending Tories" before embarking on a long migration to liberalism. Tebbit, whose nostrils are acutely sensitive to the faintest whiff of ideological betrayal, has publicly expressed his concerns. Eric Forth has worried out loud about the abandonment of tax cuts. The Conservatives I meet are less than ecstatic when I greet them with the Cameroonian embrace of "fellow liberalism".
Cynics will say that none of this matters. Power is everything. If it helps to win back government, even the dyed-in-the-wool Tories will swallow their pride and principles. Bill Cash will promote the idea of French as a second official language. John Redwood will demand government grants for black, lesbian collectives. When we reflect on the speed with which New Labour types moved from Trotsky to Tony, large-scale cynicism should not be discounted.
But though I recoil from the Conservative party, I don't think they are quite so shallow. I suspect there are limits to how far they will compromise cherished beliefs for the sake of helping a few bright young things to occupy ministerial berths in what would probably be a minority government. As the son of a Tory activist, I learned to respect, as well as to fight, Conservative conviction.
Unlike the socialist left, which was politically and intellectually defeated a decade and a half ago, Conservatives firmly believe history is on their side, even if the British voters have been temporarily seduced by the charlatan Blair. They look for inspiration not just to the past but to the US, where they see that conservative values permeate society at large and where liberalism is a dirty word. I recently sought to explain current allegiances in a Demos pamphlet, based on the politics of identity: nation, religion, tribe and race. While traditional left/right issues are still important - in relation to public services and taxation - they are overlain by questions of identity. This has opened up a big gulf on the right between those who are broadly liberal or libertarian and cosmopolitan in outlook, and what I call the cultural conservatives. It is a long way from the champagne bars of Notting Hill to the bowling clubs of Frinton-on-Sea. By pitching strongly for the first constituency, Cameron may be seriously alienating the second.
There is undoubtedly serious unease in Churchill Halls across the country. The question is being asked: where will all this political correctness end? Cameron praises migrants for their economic and cultural contribution, but aren't they the same people whom, a few months ago, the Tories denounced for living off social security and bringing Aids and TB into the country? When the country's top policeman is tip-toeing around the sensitivities of religious minorities, who will stand up for law and order and the great silent majority?
At present, the cultural conservatives have nowhere else to go. Ukip has been broken by its unhappy love affair with Robert Kilroy-Silk. The BNP's more sophisticated attempts to broaden its appeal to voters with an IQ of more than 70 have ended up with the more familiar sight of its leaders brandishing their fists after a courtroom drama. But there are very many confused, angry people looking for a lead. Cameron is not, apparently, interested in them. Before long, he will face a backlash on his own side.
I have no idea whether Cameron believes what he is saying. But if he does, the Blair-Brown feud and my own party's tribulations will seem like minor skirmishes when warfare breaks out on the right. As for Cameron shares, my advice is to sell before the market peaks.
· Vincent Cable is MP for Twickenham and the Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman
At the moment they seem to be fooling themselves, but how much longer can this last?
From the Guardian:
The biggest Tory fear is that Cameron really is a liberal
The ghastly thought is starting to dawn on the Conservative troops that perhaps their general means what he says
Vincent Cable
Thursday February 9, 2006
Capitalist societies are characterised by speculative bubbles: dotcom shares; property; bonds; and now Cameroons. Speculative bubbles are driven by the unshakeable belief of punters that markets always go up and never come down. Usually, bubbles burst. Investors in Blunketts, Milburns, Portillos, Hagues and Howards have little to show for the fashionable certainty that they would be the next prime ministers. But sometimes - albeit rarely - a new stock emerges with strong and durable fundamentals. Thatcher was one, Tony Blair another. Is Cameron one of these?
Cameron has emerged very quickly to a friendly critical reception. He has undoubted style. He is making a brazen bid for the political ground occupied by New Labour and my own party. I suspect I am not the only Liberal Democrat to have received chummy emails addressed to "my fellow liberal", or invitations to join his shadow cabinet (albeit via the somewhat impersonal medium of the Daily Mail). These fishing expeditions are unlikely to net any more than the odd, obscure ex-candidate, but they demonstrate chutzpah.
The important question is whether there is substance as well as style. The effortless progress Cameron has enjoyed within his party is striking. This is in marked contrast to the years of struggle during which Kinnock, Smith, Blair and Brown transformed the Labour party; the intense intellectual and personal battles Thatcher fought with her party's "wets"; and the fierce debates that my party enjoys on positioning and policy.
So far, Cameron hasn't fought anyone over anything. His fans put this down to brilliant generalship. A more likely explanation is that his troops haven't yet progressed from the parade ground to the battlefield. Moreover there are two radically different views of what his generalship is designed to achieve.
The first is the conventional wisdom shared by most of his supporters and opponents, that all the stuff about liberalism is a clever affectation. On this view, he is essentially concerned with rebadging an old and familiar product: the politics of Michael Howard, his mentor, and Iain Duncan Smith, presented with a charming smile and a dexterous turn of phrase. He is making the nasty seem nice. If that is all that is involved, we can relax. In due course, the feint to the centre will be followed by a familiar lunge to the right: with talk of swamping by immigrants, European conspiracies, and the evils of taxation. The Mail and Telegraph will crack the whip. Open-neck shirts and recreational drugs will go the way of William Hague's baseball cap, and we'll be back on familiar terrain.
But the ghastly thought is beginning to dawn on the Conservative party - as well as on New Labour and ourselves - that perhaps he means what he says. It is worth recalling that his inspiration, Gladstone, was once described by the historian Thomas Macaulay as the "rising hope of stern and unbending Tories" before embarking on a long migration to liberalism. Tebbit, whose nostrils are acutely sensitive to the faintest whiff of ideological betrayal, has publicly expressed his concerns. Eric Forth has worried out loud about the abandonment of tax cuts. The Conservatives I meet are less than ecstatic when I greet them with the Cameroonian embrace of "fellow liberalism".
Cynics will say that none of this matters. Power is everything. If it helps to win back government, even the dyed-in-the-wool Tories will swallow their pride and principles. Bill Cash will promote the idea of French as a second official language. John Redwood will demand government grants for black, lesbian collectives. When we reflect on the speed with which New Labour types moved from Trotsky to Tony, large-scale cynicism should not be discounted.
But though I recoil from the Conservative party, I don't think they are quite so shallow. I suspect there are limits to how far they will compromise cherished beliefs for the sake of helping a few bright young things to occupy ministerial berths in what would probably be a minority government. As the son of a Tory activist, I learned to respect, as well as to fight, Conservative conviction.
Unlike the socialist left, which was politically and intellectually defeated a decade and a half ago, Conservatives firmly believe history is on their side, even if the British voters have been temporarily seduced by the charlatan Blair. They look for inspiration not just to the past but to the US, where they see that conservative values permeate society at large and where liberalism is a dirty word. I recently sought to explain current allegiances in a Demos pamphlet, based on the politics of identity: nation, religion, tribe and race. While traditional left/right issues are still important - in relation to public services and taxation - they are overlain by questions of identity. This has opened up a big gulf on the right between those who are broadly liberal or libertarian and cosmopolitan in outlook, and what I call the cultural conservatives. It is a long way from the champagne bars of Notting Hill to the bowling clubs of Frinton-on-Sea. By pitching strongly for the first constituency, Cameron may be seriously alienating the second.
There is undoubtedly serious unease in Churchill Halls across the country. The question is being asked: where will all this political correctness end? Cameron praises migrants for their economic and cultural contribution, but aren't they the same people whom, a few months ago, the Tories denounced for living off social security and bringing Aids and TB into the country? When the country's top policeman is tip-toeing around the sensitivities of religious minorities, who will stand up for law and order and the great silent majority?
At present, the cultural conservatives have nowhere else to go. Ukip has been broken by its unhappy love affair with Robert Kilroy-Silk. The BNP's more sophisticated attempts to broaden its appeal to voters with an IQ of more than 70 have ended up with the more familiar sight of its leaders brandishing their fists after a courtroom drama. But there are very many confused, angry people looking for a lead. Cameron is not, apparently, interested in them. Before long, he will face a backlash on his own side.
I have no idea whether Cameron believes what he is saying. But if he does, the Blair-Brown feud and my own party's tribulations will seem like minor skirmishes when warfare breaks out on the right. As for Cameron shares, my advice is to sell before the market peaks.
· Vincent Cable is MP for Twickenham and the Liberal Democrat Treasury spokesman
posted by erc @ 10:30 pm
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