THE FRINGE EFFECT [again]
Following the general election in 2005, the English Rights Campaign posted an item on the effect of the fringe parties on the Tory vote [see the English Rights Campaign item dated the 10 May 2005]. That item highlighted the haemorrhaging of support towards UKIP, BNP and the then fledgling English Democrats on the nationalist issues of the EU and immigration, with the West Lothian Question looming up.
That effect has continued in the May 2010 general election too. UKIP have been cited as helping to unseat the Eurosceptic David Heathcoat-Amory in Wells, Somerset where the Lib Dems won by 800 with UKIP polling 1,711 votes. Labour held Dudley North with a majority of only 649 votes while UKIP polled 3,267 votes. Labour ministers John Denham, Phil Woolas and Ed Balls have all managed to win with majorities smaller than the UKIP vote.
It has been alleged that up to 10 seats have been thus affected. This is a gross underestimate of the importance of the fringe effect and Labour’s success in rigging the election. In Yorkshire, some of the constituencies referred to previously have now been won by the Tories. Cleethorpes, Selby and Ainsty [as it now is], and Brigg and Goole all now have Tory MPs. Direct comparisons are of course complicated by boundary changes.
However, in other constituencies the Tories have lost sufficient support to prevent them from winning. For example, in the longstanding safe Labour constituency of Don Valley, Caroline Flint clung on by a reduced majority of only 3,595. UKIP, the BNP and the English Democrats polled 1,904, 2,112 and 1,756 respectively - a combined total of 13.3% of the vote. In the neighbouring Doncaster North constituency, the combined vote for these 3 parties was a total of 16.3%. In the new constituency of Penistone and Stocksbridge, Labour won by a majority of 3,049 while the UKIP/BNP/English Democrats combined vote was 4,635 - 10% of the vote. The high vote for UKIP/BNP/English Democrats is widespread. Even in Alan Johnson’s Hull West and Hessle constituency, the combined vote was 3,980 - 12.7% of the vote.
In England, the Tories have a majority of 62 seats. In Scotland and Wales, Labour have a majority of 23 and 12 seats respectively. The Tories failed to increase their Scottish MPs at all. They still have only one. Gordon Brown is still holed up in Downing Street as a result of the manner Labour have rigged the constitution, allowing devolved parliaments, funded by English subsidies, but still packing the House of Commons with Left Wing Scots and Welsh MPs. Despite the obvious consequences of this, the Tories continue to refuse to support an English Parliament to put the English on an equal footing with the Scots and Welsh. All David Cameron’s craven crawling to the Scots [see the English Rights Campaign item dated the 24 September 2006] have failed to produce any meaningful electoral support from Scotland for the Tories.
Meanwhile, Labour continues to maximise mass immigration and the attendant industrial production and issuing of new British passports to immigrants. Roughly 80% of ethnic minorities vote for a Left Wing party. In London Labour polled more than the Tories, who failed to win marginals such as Eltham, Hammersmith and Westminster North, where the swing from Labour to the Tories was only 1.82%, 0.48% and 0.61% respectively. The combined UKIP/BNP/English Democrats vote in Eltham was 2,973 votes and the Labour majority 1,663. The Tory London Mayor, Boris Johnson, is actually campaigning for an amnesty for illegal immigrants.
The Tories have only managed to increase their vote from 33% of the vote [the percentage they won in both the 2001 and 2005 general elections] to 36%. If they do now manage to cobble together a deal with the Lib Dems, and do succeed in trying to grapple with the necessary spending cuts, they will have to face the English electors from a low base of support and explain why they refuse to stop mass immigration and why they continue to support the rigged constitution that cost England so dearly.
That effect has continued in the May 2010 general election too. UKIP have been cited as helping to unseat the Eurosceptic David Heathcoat-Amory in Wells, Somerset where the Lib Dems won by 800 with UKIP polling 1,711 votes. Labour held Dudley North with a majority of only 649 votes while UKIP polled 3,267 votes. Labour ministers John Denham, Phil Woolas and Ed Balls have all managed to win with majorities smaller than the UKIP vote.
It has been alleged that up to 10 seats have been thus affected. This is a gross underestimate of the importance of the fringe effect and Labour’s success in rigging the election. In Yorkshire, some of the constituencies referred to previously have now been won by the Tories. Cleethorpes, Selby and Ainsty [as it now is], and Brigg and Goole all now have Tory MPs. Direct comparisons are of course complicated by boundary changes.
However, in other constituencies the Tories have lost sufficient support to prevent them from winning. For example, in the longstanding safe Labour constituency of Don Valley, Caroline Flint clung on by a reduced majority of only 3,595. UKIP, the BNP and the English Democrats polled 1,904, 2,112 and 1,756 respectively - a combined total of 13.3% of the vote. In the neighbouring Doncaster North constituency, the combined vote for these 3 parties was a total of 16.3%. In the new constituency of Penistone and Stocksbridge, Labour won by a majority of 3,049 while the UKIP/BNP/English Democrats combined vote was 4,635 - 10% of the vote. The high vote for UKIP/BNP/English Democrats is widespread. Even in Alan Johnson’s Hull West and Hessle constituency, the combined vote was 3,980 - 12.7% of the vote.
In England, the Tories have a majority of 62 seats. In Scotland and Wales, Labour have a majority of 23 and 12 seats respectively. The Tories failed to increase their Scottish MPs at all. They still have only one. Gordon Brown is still holed up in Downing Street as a result of the manner Labour have rigged the constitution, allowing devolved parliaments, funded by English subsidies, but still packing the House of Commons with Left Wing Scots and Welsh MPs. Despite the obvious consequences of this, the Tories continue to refuse to support an English Parliament to put the English on an equal footing with the Scots and Welsh. All David Cameron’s craven crawling to the Scots [see the English Rights Campaign item dated the 24 September 2006] have failed to produce any meaningful electoral support from Scotland for the Tories.
Meanwhile, Labour continues to maximise mass immigration and the attendant industrial production and issuing of new British passports to immigrants. Roughly 80% of ethnic minorities vote for a Left Wing party. In London Labour polled more than the Tories, who failed to win marginals such as Eltham, Hammersmith and Westminster North, where the swing from Labour to the Tories was only 1.82%, 0.48% and 0.61% respectively. The combined UKIP/BNP/English Democrats vote in Eltham was 2,973 votes and the Labour majority 1,663. The Tory London Mayor, Boris Johnson, is actually campaigning for an amnesty for illegal immigrants.
The Tories have only managed to increase their vote from 33% of the vote [the percentage they won in both the 2001 and 2005 general elections] to 36%. If they do now manage to cobble together a deal with the Lib Dems, and do succeed in trying to grapple with the necessary spending cuts, they will have to face the English electors from a low base of support and explain why they refuse to stop mass immigration and why they continue to support the rigged constitution that cost England so dearly.
posted by erc @ 3:49 pm
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