THE FRINGE EFFECT

The results of the Stoke Central and Copeland by-elections demonstrate the feeble appeal of UKIP to disgruntled patriotic voters. UKIP had been especially hopeful of winning the Stoke Central by-election as Stoke had voted strongly in favour of leaving the EU. UKIP assumed that those who voted Leave would be inclined to vote UKIP.

The new UKIP leader, Paul Nuttall, himself stood as the UKIP candidate in Stoke Central. His campaign started well and victory was expected; even Labour admitted that they were struggling. However the UKIP campaign became mired in tittle-tattle about the embellishment of Nuttall's CV, and as to the details of his attendance at the Hillsborough tragedy – a very sore issue for Nuttall's local Liverpudlians who have fought a hard campaign over very many years to expose the comprehensive dishonesty of both the Police and the various pompous inquiries.

However, it would be a mistake to attribute UKIP's defeat to this tittle-tattle. The Trump campaign had its own difficulties and yet the USA voted for President Trump. That was because patriotic voters were attracted to his ideological stance and believed that he would tackle the USA's serious problems. A similar ideological battle exists across Europe where sensible right-wing parties are doing noticeably better than UKIP, which has struggled to win parliamentary by-elections and failed to advance in general elections. UKIP styles itself as being libertarian rather than right-wing or nationalist.

Immediately prior to start of the above two by-election campaigns, UKIP came out in full support of the May Government's Brexit Postponed strategy (see the English Rights Campaign item dated 19 January 2017), in which Britain will remain in the EU in the short to medium term, will be involved in an interim relationship with the EU in the medium to long term, and might eventually leave the EU only in the long term – and even then the aim is to forge a new partnership. Meanwhile, payments to the EU continue unchanged, immigrants continue to pour in, and the balance of trade deficit continues uninterrupted. All wings and factions of UKIP were positively gushing over the May Government's Brexit policy.

One cannot imagine why UKIP decided to betray their country, their cause, their voters, or their ordinary members in this way. In any event, the Tory vote remained strong, even in Stoke Central which had a low priority as the Tories were focusing on Copeland where they won (it was only in the final week that the Tory big guns, including the Prime Minister, showed up to campaign). UKIP totally failed to make any inroads into the Tory vote.

The poor showing in the by-elections, as with the poor performance at the last general election (see the English Rights Campaign item dated the 30 April 2015), proves that had UKIP controlled the anti-EU campaign in the referendum, then that referendum would have been lost. It was Vote Leave who won the referendum, with much needed support on the ground from ordinary UKIP members and activists.

From what UKIP representatives have said on television, then in the by-elections, for unprincipled opportunism, UKIP scores ten out of ten. For political strategy and tactics, campaign strategy and tactics, policy development and political positioning, zero out of ten on all counts. The patriotic cause in Britain is not owned by UKIP and unless UKIP is able to raise its game then it faces oblivion. One thing that is almost certain, is that whatever form Brexit takes, it will involve the abolition of Britain's MEPs and hence almost all UKIP's elected politicians and their employees, and its infrastructure and funding.

It will be seen whether these dismal results are the beginning of the end of UKIP, or a much needed kick up the backside. Paul Nuttall's leadership abilities will now be put to the test. If UKIP is to achieve success and win parliamentary representation, then it needs to be bold and to think big. It needs to get off the fence.

The fight between patriotism and political correctness is the fight between good and evil. It is as clear cut as that.