VOTE RIGGING

The Boundary Commission has now launched its final draft for the suggested redrawing of constituency boundaries. This is supposed to update the boundaries to reflect demographic changes. Such reviews are ongoing and are supposed to ensure that the elections are as fair as possible.

In a report entitled Guide to the New Electoral Boundaries, by Anthony Wells, the details of the major proposed changes are listed. The opening paragraph of the Summary states:

‘The Boundary Commissions of the UK (one for Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland) conduct general reviews of the Parliamentary constituencies every 8 to 12 years. This is the fifth general review since 1949. The review started in 2000 and the new boundaries are based upon the population in each seat in February 2000. The new boundaries in Scotland have already been adopted and were used at the 2005 election. Unless there is a very early snap election, the new boundaries in England, Wales and Northern Ireland will be introduced in time for the next General Election.’

The report makes grim reading for those who genuinely believe in the democratic process. It should be recalled that the last general election resulted in a Labour majority of 66, which was completely out of step with its percentage vote [the outcome was Labour 36%, Tories 33% and Lib Dems 23%, which means that Labour received a substantial parliamentary majority despite a low vote and despite only being 3% ahead of the Tories].

The 66 Labour majority includes 70 Scottish and Welsh Labour MPs. In other words, Labour is governing England solely as a result of the manner of the devolution settlement imposed on England. Labour’s majority in England is totally dependent on its Scottish and Welsh MPs. This is an illegitimate government.

In a section entitled Why is there still Labour bias?, the report states:

'The perceived bias in the electoral system is slightly reduced by the boundary changes, but not eliminated. This is because time-lag in the boundaries is only one factor in the bias in the system.

Even on the new boundaries if both of the main parties were on the same percentage of vote - for example 35% - then Labour would have 87 seats more than the Conservatives. There are several reasons for this:

1. Over-representation of Wales. Scotland’s over-representation was resolved by the new boundaries introduced in 2005. Wales, however, remains over-represented. The electoral quota in England and Scotland is 69,934, in Wales it is 55,640. If Wales were to use the English quota, it would be entitled to only 32, rather than the present 40. Given that Labour holds almost three-quarters of the seats in Wales the current over-representation is to their benefit, and gives them an extra 5 seats over the Conservatives. (In practice would probably still have more than 32 seats even if it did use the English quota - Scotland has 59 seats rather than the 57 it “should” have because of geographical considerations in the highlands and islands. Similar factors in Anglesey and the Welsh mountains would probably have a similar affect).

2. Time-lag. It takes several years to conduct a boundary review and to introduce the new boundaries. The rules state that the electoral figures used are those at the date the review started. The boundaries in this review will come into force at the next election, probably in 2009 or 2010, but are based on the population in 2000. Hence they will be 10 years out of date by the time they are introduced.

Since 2000 there have already been major changes in the population of some seats - for example, Stretford & Urmston, Preston and Derby North have all seen their electorates fall by over 8,000 in the last 4 years. Cambridgeshire North-West, Westbury and Croydon North have all seen their electorates grow by over 6,000 in the last 4 years. The situation will obviously be more extreme in 2009/10.

The trend is for the population to increase in Conservative and fall in Labour areas as people move out of declining inner-cities and into suburbs and the country (though not, it should be pointed out, exclusively - another rapidly growing seat is Bethnal Green & Bow). Therefore this time lag tends to favour Labour whose heartlands would receive considerably fewer seats were boundaries drawn up on projected population figures in the future as local ward boundaries are.

Given that the changes in this review, reflecting the population movements over the nine years between 1991 and 2000, have decreased the “labour bias” by 24 seats, it seems reasonable to assume that had boundaries been drawn up on the likely population figures when the boundaries are due to be introduced (probably 2009), “Labour bias” would have been reduced by something in the same region.’

The section goes on to draw attention to the lower turnout in Labour seats and the effect of anti-Tory tactical voting as also being reasons for the Labour bias.

There is absolutely no reason why Wales should continue to be over-represented, and nor for that matter Scotland at all. So what if there are some mountains and islands in Scotland and Wales? This is the 21st century and not the age of the horse and cart.

The two Scottish constituencies of Orkney and Shetland, and Na H-Eileanan An Iar have electorates of roughly 33,000 and 21,500 respectively. Meanwhile, the Isle of Wight, an English island and single constituency, has an electorate of roughly 109,000. The English Isle of Wight constituency has an electorate roughly 3 times that of Orkney and Shetland, and more than 5 times that of Na H-Eileanan An Iar. It is roughly twice the size of a normal sized Welsh constituency.

Such huge anomalies are intolerable in a normal democracy.

The 3 East Yorkshire constituencies of Haltemprice and Howden, Yorkshire East, and Beverley and Holderness [all Tory] have a combined electorate of roughly 222,500, compared with the combined electorate of roughly 189,500 for the neighbouring 3 Hull constituencies [all Labour]. The 33,000 difference is equivalent to the electorate Orkney and Shetland and 50% greater than that of Na H-Eileanan An Iar. To put it another way, the 3 aforementioned East Yorkshire constituencies are equivalent to 4 normal sized Welsh constituencies.

This matter has already been highlighted in the English Rights Campaign entry dated the 26 May 2005, when urgent action was advocated. Yet nothing has happened and we are now sleepwalking into another rigged election in 2009.

The idea that the new boundaries and constituencies are based on population figures which are already known to be wrong, with the figures being 10 years out of date, is absurd. The new constituencies should be based on projected figures as are wards.

Are the Tories, or anyone else, objecting to this? No. Not a squeak.

Labour is in the process of turning this country into a one party state. English democratic rights are being ignored and subverted by a rigged voting system.

THIS CANNOT BE ALLOWED TO GO ON.